Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Commodity markets took centre stage during yesterday's session after Israel's missile strike on Iran did not target oil and nuclear facilities, avoiding energy supply disruptions. Brent crude fell 6%, to close slightly above $71/barrel, and the global commodity index lost as much as 2% on the day.
Investors traded without a clear direction during Friday’s session. Inflation expectations in the euro area fell to 2.4% and 2.1% for the 1-year and 3-year outlooks, respectively, and sentiment improved in both Germany and the US.
Investors traded in a slightly risk-on mood yesterday. Preliminary Eurozone PMI data for October showed activity remained stagnant, albeit with weaker-than-expected services and stronger-than-expected manufacturing. US PMI data surprised to the upside and labour market data showed fewer jobs are being lost but unemployment benefits are at a three-year high.
Wednesday saw a mixed session in financial markets, with no major macroeconomic data releases to guide investors. US Treasury yields rose as investors weighed election uncertainty and a Republican sweep scenario, and priced in a slower pace of Fed rate cuts. In the eurozone, however, government bond yields fell on expectations of a more dovish ECB.
Financial markets had a choppy session on Tuesday, with many assets and indices oscillating between gains and losses. Government bonds had a slightly volatile session, ending with higher yields in the eurozone and flat in the US, as traders grappled with a strong primary market supply and different scenarios for the upcoming US presidential election.
Investors started the week in a risk-off mood, albeit with no clear trigger or catalyst, suggesting that it was mostly about locking in profits. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board on both sides of the Atlantic, with steepening curves. In the eurozone, peripheral spreads widened despite Fitch's confirmation of Italy's rating and improved outlook late on Friday.
Investors ended the week on a positive note, as risk appetite increased on the back of the ECB’s rate cut, another round of stimulus measures announced by the Chinese authorities, and strong Q3 US corporate earnings.
The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp for the third time since June, and as expected by financial markets, lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%. The decision was based on increased confidence that inflation is close to target and a shift to a more negative short-term outlook for the euro area economy.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of the ECB's Governing Council meeting today, for which markets are expecting a 25 bp interest rate cut. Euro area sovereign bond yields fell for a second straight session and the main equity indices in the region were mixed.
Revised inflation figures for Spain and France reaffirmed market expectations of a 25bp interest rate cut at this week's ECB meeting. And, while industrial production for the euro block rose in August and sentiment indicators improved in Germany, the data are unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering a cut.
Financial markets started the week with subdued trading, as debt and money markets in the US were closed for a Federal holiday. Eurozone sovereign bond yields were fairly flat, with peripheral spreads narrowing slightly, as investors continued to focus on Thursday's ECB meeting, for which they expect a 25bp interest rate cut.
Financial markets ended the week on a slightly positive note as the earnings season in the US kicked off with the big banks posting solid results. Investors also continued to digest inflation data received during the week which confirmed expectations of a 25bp rate cut instead of a 50bp cut from the Fed.