Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp for the third time since June, and as expected by financial markets, lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%. The decision was based on increased confidence that inflation is close to target and a shift to a more negative short-term outlook for the euro area economy.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of the ECB's Governing Council meeting today, for which markets are expecting a 25 bp interest rate cut. Euro area sovereign bond yields fell for a second straight session and the main equity indices in the region were mixed.
Revised inflation figures for Spain and France reaffirmed market expectations of a 25bp interest rate cut at this week's ECB meeting. And, while industrial production for the euro block rose in August and sentiment indicators improved in Germany, the data are unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering a cut.
Financial markets started the week with subdued trading, as debt and money markets in the US were closed for a Federal holiday. Eurozone sovereign bond yields were fairly flat, with peripheral spreads narrowing slightly, as investors continued to focus on Thursday's ECB meeting, for which they expect a 25bp interest rate cut.
Financial markets ended the week on a slightly positive note as the earnings season in the US kicked off with the big banks posting solid results. Investors also continued to digest inflation data received during the week which confirmed expectations of a 25bp rate cut instead of a 50bp cut from the Fed.
Thursday's trading was driven by two US data points: September inflation, which came in slightly higher than expected, and weekly jobless claims, which came in higher than expected, indicating some weakness in the labour market. The debate on the Fed's next move was further fueled by Fed's Barkin words saying it was too soon to declare victory over inflation.
Wednesday saw another mixed session in the financial markets ahead of today's US inflation report. Government bond yields rose slightly in the eurozone and more sharply in the US. The move in the eurozone came as some ECB officials expressed doubts about a rate cut in October, which had so far been favoured by most of the bank's officials who spoke.
Financial markets had another mixed session on Tuesday, with little in the way of data releases to guide investors. In the money market, interbank rates moved higher on both sides of the Atlantic as investors reassessed their expectations for central banks' policy. Fed officials speaking yesterday stressed the importance of a cautious Fed in achieving its twin target.
Investors started off the week on a mixed tone. In the money market, interbank rates rose as investors reassessed their expectations of further aggressive interest rate cuts. Sovereign bond yields also rose on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US treasuries' curve flattening as short-term benchmarks rose the most.
Financial markets experienced a risk-on session on Friday as the US employment report for September came in better than expected, shrugging off geopolitical concerns. The strength of the labour market underlined the dynamism of the economy and eased pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively to support the economy.
Risk-off sentiment continued to dominate financial markets as tensions mounted in the Middle East. Oil prices rose 5%, with the Brent reference closing around $77/barrel, and the dollar strengthened.
Financial markets struggled to find a clear direction amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices had a volatile session, with the Brent reference touching $76/barrel in intraday trading, to close at around $74/barrel. Equity markets closed with slight losses in the euro area and flat in the US, while the volatility index remained elevated.