Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, during which the Fed signaled a cautious path ahead, euro area financial markets caught up to their US counterparts during yesterday's session. Sovereign bond yields rose by +6bp in the region, and the main equity indices ended sharply lower. Meanwhile, the euro traded around $1.03 against the dollar.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% and signaled it will slow down the pace of cuts given its upward revision to the inflation forecast for the next two years. The Fed considered that the good health of the labor market and the little progress made on inflation in the recent months gives it room to act more cautiously from now on.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's FOMC decision (a 25bp interest rate cut is widely discounted) and the BoE on Thursday (expected to hold interest rates at 4.75%). On the macro data front, US retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in November, and in Germany, the IFO expectations index surprised to the downside as confidence in the country continued to weaken.
The advance PMI figures for December extended the recent trend of divergent growth between the US and euro area countries. The composite PMI in the US rose from 54.9 last month to 56.6, whereas the euro area composite index stayed below 50, albeit improving from 48.3 to 49.5, boosted by a recovery in the services sector (to 51.4).
Financial markets ended the week on a cautious tone as investors fully digested the ECB's decision to lower interest rates and as they positioned themselves ahead of the Fed's FOMC meeting later this week given the latest prices data: higher-than-expected import and producer prices during November.
The ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp and left the deposit rate at 3%. The central bank also removed a reference in its guidance to keeping interest rates sufficiently restrictive, a sign that further policy easing is probably coming. Following the meeting, the probability of a 50bp rate cut in January, instead of 25bp, has risen from 30% to above 60%.
US inflation for November came in line with expectations: headline inflation ticked up to 2.7% yoy (+0.3% mom), from 2.6% in October, and core inflation remained unchanged at 3.3% yoy (+0.3% mom). After the release, expectations for a Federal Reserve 25bp interest rate cut this month rose to almost 100%.
Subdued trading on financial markets on Tuesday ahead of today's US CPI report and tomorrow's ECB meeting. Eurozone government bond yields were flat, while US yields edged slightly higher. On the data front, US unit labour costs rose 0.8% in Q3 (below an expected 1.3%), while the NFIB business confidence index rose to its highest level since June 2021.
Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious note as they await the ECB's Governing Council meeting (on Thursday), widely expected to lower interest rates by 25bp, and US inflation figures for November (released on Wednesday), a key report for the Fed's decision next week.
Financial markets ended the week on a mixed note. In the US, November payrolls data showed that employment grew slightly more than expected (with October data revised upwards), but unemployment rose by 0.1% to 4.2% and wage growth accelerated slightly. Treasury yields fell and the probability of a -25bp cut by the Fed in December rose to 90%.
Euro area markets had a cautious session ahead of the no-confidence vote in France, approved late last night. Sovereign bond yields were mostly flat, and the region's main equity indices posted small gains. The euro was flat against its main peers, leaving its cross with the US dollar at 1.05.
Investors traded cautiously amid political tensions in France, where lawmakers are set to vote today on no-confidence motions. Euro area sovereign bond yields edged lower, and France's risk premium narrowed to 85bp after reaching 88bp in the previous session. The region's main stock indices advanced slightly, and the euro held steady at 1.05 against the dollar.
Political tensions in France took center stage during yesterday's session after far-right and far-left parties submitted no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Barnier, risking the collapse of the current government. French government yields rose, its risk premium widened further, and the euro sold-off to 1.05 against the dollar.