Financial Markets Daily Report

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Markets ended the week in a risk-off mode as investors focused on Trump's announcement due on Wednesday of a tariff hike that seeks to match tariffs on US products in other countries.

In yesterday’s session, investor concerns over the impact of the trade war intensified after Donald Trump announced that all finished automobile imports will be subject to a 25% tariff from next Thursday. Global equity markets recorded losses, with major automakers experiencing significant share drops.

Generalized risk-off sentiment during yesterday's session following news that President Trump would impose tariffs on the automotive sector by the end of the day, which he finally did (25% on all finished auto imports). Stock markets fell sharply on both sides of the Atlantic, dragged lower by industrial stocks. The dollar strengthened to $1.07 against the euro.

Investors traded cautiously amid heightened tariff uncertainty, fresh rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine, and mixed macro data. In the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell to its lowest level since 2021, while the German Ifo business climate index rose, as companies' expectations about the future improved.

Markets were mixed in the first session of the week as investors remained cautious on the outlook of the global economy. In the euro area, sovereign bonds ended flat and the main stock indices edged lower as markets await further details on tariffs from the US. The euro area composite PMI rose to 50.4 this month from 50.2 in February.

Friday's session was mixed as investors continued to weigh tariff uncertainty, monetary policy decisions and the Fed's updated macro forecasts. Sovereign bond yields edged lower on both sides of the Atlantic, while stock markets registered losses in the euro area and Asia, and barely advanced in the US. The dollar was mostly flat.

Correction session for the markets, characterised by nervousness ahead of the looming tariff threat on April 2nd, as referenced by central banks, and an upcoming corporate earnings season that may begin to reflect these concerns in companies' forecasts.

As widely expected by markets, the Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% range. The Fed rebalanced its scenario towards higher inflation and lower growth, while the median dot plot again signaled two rate reductions by the end of this year, sending US Treasury yields lower, boosting US equities and strengthening the dollar.

Markets traded cautiously yesterday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision today. US Treasury yields were almost flat, as markets expect Fed's policy rate to stay at its current level. On the other side of the Atlantic, euro area sovereign yields were flat, as the German Bundestag approved a fiscal package to boost defence spending, as expected.

Financial markets were mixed during yesterday's session, while investors were relieved as US February's retail sales grew 0.2% mom. Although lower than an expected 0.6% mom, this piece of data reduced fears of a severe slowdown in US consumer spending amidst tariff policy uncertainty.

Financial markets traded on a risk-on mode during Friday session following losses from previous sessions. US equities registered gains despite consumer sentiment preliminary estimates plunging to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022, from 64.7 in February and below forecasts of 63.1, as a consequence of higher uncertainty surrounding tariff policy.

Investors' sentiment continued to deteriorate amid escalating trade tensions and Russia's initial refusal to agree to a truce in Ukraine. Equity markets ended lower, particularly in the US, and Treasury yields fell as investors increased their demand for safe-haven US government debt. Oil prices declined as markets weighed the risk that the tariff war could dampen global energy demand.