Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
As widely expected by markets, the Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% range. The Fed rebalanced its scenario towards higher inflation and lower growth, while the median dot plot again signaled two rate reductions by the end of this year, sending US Treasury yields lower, boosting US equities and strengthening the dollar.
Markets traded cautiously yesterday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision today. US Treasury yields were almost flat, as markets expect Fed's policy rate to stay at its current level. On the other side of the Atlantic, euro area sovereign yields were flat, as the German Bundestag approved a fiscal package to boost defence spending, as expected.
Financial markets were mixed during yesterday's session, while investors were relieved as US February's retail sales grew 0.2% mom. Although lower than an expected 0.6% mom, this piece of data reduced fears of a severe slowdown in US consumer spending amidst tariff policy uncertainty.
Financial markets traded on a risk-on mode during Friday session following losses from previous sessions. US equities registered gains despite consumer sentiment preliminary estimates plunging to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022, from 64.7 in February and below forecasts of 63.1, as a consequence of higher uncertainty surrounding tariff policy.
Investors' sentiment continued to deteriorate amid escalating trade tensions and Russia's initial refusal to agree to a truce in Ukraine. Equity markets ended lower, particularly in the US, and Treasury yields fell as investors increased their demand for safe-haven US government debt. Oil prices declined as markets weighed the risk that the tariff war could dampen global energy demand.
Investors' risk appetite rebounded slightly yesterday following Trump's comments late Tuesday on the strength of the US economy. Eurozone government bond yields fell slightly amid the ongoing negotiations to lift the German debt brake. US Treasury yields rose and the curve flattened as trade concerns offset the optimism from the strong February CPI print.
Risk-off sentiment dominated investors for most of yesterday's session. In the Eurozone, peripheral spreads narrowed and the German Bund yield curve steepened as talks between political parties over new spending plans continued. US Treasuries rose as well after the JOLTS report showed an increase in job openings in January.
The week started with a strong risk-off move, particularly in the US. In the eurozone, the Sentix index of investor confidence for March hit its highest level since 2021, while German industrial production for January came in above expectations. Sovereign yield curves flattened as the short end declined, while the long end and spreads were broadly flat.
Investors remained cautious on Friday in an uncertain global political environment. Eurozone government bond yields were flat, although peripheral spreads widened slightly. US Treasury yields were also slightly higher, with curves flattening, after the Fed's Powell said that tariffs could fuel inflation but that the economy was fine so the Fed should remain cautious.
In yesterday's session, German bonds extended their decline, with the 10-year bund yield reaching 2.83%, and the euro appreciated against the dollar as the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%. President Christine Lagarde did not pre-commit to setting rates in any direction in the upcoming meetings, and warned of the uncertainty surrounding the effects of the trade war and increased defense spending.
Euro area sovereign bond yields rose significantly after Merz, expected to become Germany's next chancellor, announced a political deal to raise hundreds of millions of euros for defense and infrastructure, claiming, "the rule for our defense has to be 'whatever it takes'". Germany's 10-year sovereign yield saw its largest single-day gain since 1990 (+30bp).
Generalized risk-off session as trade tensions intensified. Following the new round of US tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports, China imposed a 10-15% tariff on US agricultural products, Canada announced 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports, and Mexico stated it would announce tariffs over the weekend.
Markets were mixed across the globe during yesterday's session. In the euro area, renewed talks on increasing defense spending and finding a peace deal for Ukraine drove positive sentiment, while in the US, President Trump's announcement that 25% tariffs to Canada and Mexico would be reinstated on March 4th sent markets into a risk-off trading session.