Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Markets rallied on Thursday as US inflation eased more than expected in November (2.6% vs. 3.0% YoY), boosting risk appetite. The moderation may partly reflect delayed data collection due to the recent government shutdown. Separately, initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 last week. Treasury yields dropped and investors' rate-cut expectations for the Fed remained broadly unchanged.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Wednesday. Eurozone sovereign yields edged higher, with curves steepening and peripheral spreads widening, even as the Ifo index surprised to the downside, signaling weaker business sentiment in Germany. Final CPI figures for November came in a tenth lower in the general year-on-year rate.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Tuesday. Sovereign bond yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic after a choppy session, driven by US employment figures distorted by the recent shutdown. The data showed job growth rebounded in November, while the unemployment rate rose in October following a methodological change due to the shutdown.
During yesterday's session, Government bond yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic ahead of several central bank meetings this week. The ECB meets on Thursday, with markets pricing an almost sure decision of keeping depo rate at 2%. Other banks meeting are the BoE (expected to cut to 3.75%) and the BoJ (expected to hike to 0.75%).
Markets ended the week lower as long-term yields surged and several Fed officials expressed their worries about inflation. Sovereign curves steepened: short-end rates eased but long and ultra-long maturities rose, after hawkish remarks from Cleveland Fed President Hammack calling for higher rates to curb inflation.
Financial markets continued to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates. Sovereign bond yields edged lower in the euro area and were stable in the U.S., while the dollar extended its recent weakening trend, leaving EUR/USD trading near 1.175. Futures markets continued to price in two rate cuts for next year, despite a seemingly divided FOMC.
As expected, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.50%–3.75%. Following the announcement, Treasury yields fell, U.S. equities advanced, and the dollar weakened, leaving EUR/USD trading near 1.17. After three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed signaled it will likely pause to assess how the economy evolves.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today’s Fed meeting. Yesterday’s JOLTS report showed US job openings increased in October, indicating that the labor market isn't weakening abruptly and raising the risk that the Fed may strike a hawkish tone despite the widely expected rate cut later today. In response, Treasury yields edged higher and the dollar strengthened.
Investors kicked off the week on a cautious note, with attention set on upcoming monetary policy decisions. U.S. Treasury yields edged higher ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected (market-implied odds are near 100%) though uncertainty persists around the Fed’s forward path.
Investors traded cautiously as they positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week. US weekly unemployment benefit claims fell to a three-year low, casting some doubts over the Fed's willingess to lower rates. In this context, US treasury yields rose, equities were mostly flat, and the dollar edged higher against most peers.
US Treasury yields dropped along the curve after the ADP survey showed an unexpected decrease of private payrolls in November, suggesting further weakness of the job market and consolidating views on a rate cut by the Fed next week. In consequence, the dollar depreciated against all its main peers.
US Treasury yields ended yesterday's session mostly flat after the large sell-off they suffered on Monday. The market-implied probability of a Fed rate cut next week continued to stand close to 100%. The Japanese 2Y yield topped 1% early this week, its highest value since 2008, on continued expectations of a rate hike in two weeks.
Financial markets started the week with a subdued risk appetite. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board in developed markets. The sold off started in Japan, where it seems increasingly likely that the BoJ could rise rates in December. In both Europe and the US, November ISM and PMI data showed protracted weakness in manufacturing.