Murcia Region

• With almost 1.6 million inhabitants, Murcia accounts for 3.2% of Spain’s total population. It is the youngest region in the country, with only 16.6% of the population aged over 65 (national average of 20.4%).
• The region’s GDP stands at 35.810 billion euros, equivalent to 2.7% of Spanish GDP.
• GDP per capita (23,197 euros) is the fifth-lowest in the country and 17.6% below the national average. Despite being one of the most dynamic regions in recent years, the difference between its GDP per capita and the national average has stabilised, due to the region’s strong population growth.
• In terms of production sectors, its specialisation in the manufacturing industry is notable (15.1% of GDP vs. 12.5% in Spain) and, above all, in the agricultural sector (4.6% vs. 2.6%), where it is the third-largest region in fruit and vegetable production. In contrast, industry-related services make up a far smaller percentage (21.8% vs. 28.5%).
• Goods exports represent 40.2% of regional GDP, 11.3 points above the Spanish average and the fourth-highest percentage in the country. In 2023, the region exported goods worth 14.020 billion euros, 3.7% of Spanish exports. Almost half of its exported goods come from the agri-food industry, especially fruit, pulses and vegetables, ahead of fuel (23.7% – thanks to the refinery in Escombreras) and chemical products (10%). Murcia accounts for 17% of all Spanish exports of fruit and pulses.

Murcia’s economy is evolving positively. At CaixaBank Research we estimate that Murcia’s GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2024 (2.8% in Spain). It has enjoyed a notable improvement in exports and industrial activity and, above all, an upturn in the agriculture and livestock sector and food industry – which are very important for the region – thanks to more favourable weather conditions. However, construction – especially public works – will fail to match the strong figures recorded in 2022-2023.

Our forecasts indicate that Murcia’s economy will slow down in 2025, with a GDP flash estimate of 2.3%, the same rate as across the country. This loss of momentum is mainly due to the slowdown in the tertiary sector and industry performing weakly. On a positive note, stable interest rates and prices coupled with a wider roll-out of European funds may boost consumption and investment.

Employment figures in Murcia have been positive. After growth well below the Spanish average in 2023 (1.9% vs. 2.7%), the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security has risen sharply this year, and in September it had grown by 2.2% year-on-year (vs. 2.3%): in the last year, there has been notable growth in employment in transportation, healthcare and, above all, education. In turn, the unemployment rate (12.6% in Q2 2024) is somewhat higher than the Spanish average (11.3%).

Consumer spending is performing more sluggishly than on average across the country. After growing by just 0.5% in 2023, six times less than in Spain as a whole, the volume of retail trade sales picked up slightly this year, growing by 1.5% year-on-year in January-August (vs. 1.6%); as a result, it is one of the regions furthest adrift of 2019 levels (–4.7% vs. +3.7%).

Murcia’s industrial activity was hampered by the energy and agri-food sectors in 2023, so the IPI fell sharply, by 6.2% (–1.4% across the whole of Spain). However, the first eight months of this year saw a slight improvement and it grew by 0.5% year-on-year (vs. 0.4%).

Murcia’s exports of goods in 2023 saw a sharper decline than in the rest of the country (–2.7% vs. –1.4%): the excellent performance of sales of agri-food products, especially fruit, pulses and processed foods, was largely offset by the sharp decline in sales of energy products (oil products), hampered by the normalisation of their prices. This year, with figures up to July, it has performed very strongly, growing by 5.6% year-on-year (–0.9% in Spain).