Cantabria

• In terms of GDP, Cantabria is the region with the second lowest GDP in the country, with 15.355 billion euros, 1.1% of the national total.
• With just over 591,000 inhabitants (1.2% of Spain’s total population), it also ranks second to last in demographic terms.
• Its GDP per capita stands at 26,167 euros, 7.1% below the Spanish average. It has dropped further below the average in recent years, mainly due to poor economic growth and within a context of slight population decline.
• In terms of its productive sectors, it is notable for the relative importance of construction (6.3% vs. 5.4% of the Spanish average), public administration (18.9% vs. 17.8%) and, above all, the manufacturing industry (18.3% vs. 12.5%). However, it has a lower share in trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (25.3% vs. 28.4%) and agriculture (1.2% vs. 2.6%).
• This region is not highly export-oriented: despite the great strides made in recent years, exports of goods only account for 22.9% of regional GDP, 6 points below the Spanish average. In 2023, Cantabria exported goods worth 3.360 billion euros, representing 0.9% of Spanish exports. The leading export sectors are iron and steel (14.3% of the total), chemical products (13.7%) and electrical appliances (11.5%).

According to CaixaBank Research’s estimates, Cantabria’s GDP grew by 2.2% in 2024, below the national average (2.8%), hampered by the weak performance of investment, industrial activity and exports, in a context of lower demand from its main trading partners. However, the services and construction sectors performed well, both in public works and housing.

For 2025, our forecasts indicate that Cantabria’s GDP will grow by 2.0% (2.3% in Spain). We expect a further rollout of NGEU funds to support industrial recovery, while household spending will be boosted by a rise in real incomes, thanks to easing inflation and falling interest rates and a relatively healthy financial position. Meanwhile, any upswing in exports will be tempered by the modest performance expected in the euro area; on a positive note, Cantabria is among the regions with the greatest room for improvement in tourism.

Cantabria’s labour market is not performing as well as Spain as a whole: the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security rose by 1.4% in 2023 (vs. 2.7% in Spain) and by 2.3% year-on-year in November (vs. 2.4%); job creation in hotels and restaurants and professional activities has been outstanding over the last year, whereas there have been job losses in the agricultural sector. As for the unemployment rate, in Q3 2024 it stood at 7.2%, the second lowest in the country and far below the Spanish average (11.2%).

In terms of consumption, Cantabria is among the best performing regions. After last year’s below-average growth (2.2% vs. 2.9%), the volume of sales of retail and consumer goods has recovered strongly in 2024 with growth rates among the highest of all regions, 2.9% year-on-year up to October (2.0% across the country).

Cantabria’s industrial production is performing very poorly, declining continuously since 2022. Following the downturn recorded in 2023 (–3.5%, 2 points more than Spain as a whole), this year it has declined further, falling by 4.6% year-on-year in January-September, the second weakest figure in the country, whereas it rose slightly nationwide (0.2%). It has been hampered by the poor performance of consumer durables, capital goods and, above all, energy products.

In line with the weak figures recorded by industry in 2023, the region’s exports of goods also performed worse than in the country as a whole, falling by 4.3% (vs. –1.4%): the strong performance of food sales (particularly fish products) and the motor vehicle industry was largely offset by the sharp decline in commodities and semi-finished goods (especially iron, steel and chemical products). This year has seen a slight improvement, with growth of 2.7% year-on-year up to September (–0.3% in Spain), with a notable upturn in exports of capital goods (mainly engines) and semi-finished goods (tyres and inner tubes).