Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Another mixed session for financial markets as investors tried to figure out future rate moves from the main central banks. In the eurozone, the ECB delivered yesterday a 25 bp cut to its depo rate, bringing it to 3.5%. Regarding the October meeting, Lagarde just noted that it will take place too soon to provide the ECB with new data to assess price dynamics.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Wednesday. As investors awaited today's ECB meeting, the biggest macro driver yesterday was the US CPI report for August, which showed that prices rose in line with expectations (0.2% MoM), but core inflation showed some stickiness (0.3% MoM) due to higher than expected costs for housing and other services.
Financial markets had a mixed session yesterday, although the overall mood among investors remained gloomy as they await today's U.S. inflation report for August, which is expected to show easing price pressures. Government bond yields fell across the board on both sides of the Atlantic.
Investors started the week with a greater risk appetite than the previous one. Sovereign bond yields were mixed among regions and maturities while, in the money markets, yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic.
Risk-off mode took over financial markets on Friday, as the US employment report showed a cooling labour market. Hiring in the US is slowing down, but not falling off a cliff, so implicit interest money market rates are still discounting a 25 b.p. cut from the Fed at its September meeting.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's release of the US jobs report. Other labor market data released yesterday, like the ADP report, showed non-farm private employment cooled in August, while weekly jobless claims fell, pointing to weakening demand in the labor market, although layoffs remain low.
Markets traded on a risk-off tone for a second session in a row after data showed the US labor market continues to cool, boosting expectations the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting. In particular, job openings in July (JOLTS) fell to the lowest level since 2021.
Markets had an intense risk-off session following weaker-than-expected manufacturing data in the US, and as investors position themselves for the US jobs report on Friday, which could determine the Fed's next move. In particular, the ISM index for July came in at 47.2, slighlty higher than last month's, but still in contractionary territory.
Lacking any major macro data to trade on and with US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday, investors kicked off the week with a quiet session on Monday. The final reading of the August manufacturing PMI for the euro area came in without any major revisions at 45.8, confirming the sector's weakness.
Investors ended August digesting inflation data which confirmed prices are moving in the right direction for the ECB and the Fed to cut interest rates in their September meetings. Specifically, euro are inflation cooled to 2.2% y/y last month, and the US PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) for July was unchanged at 2.5% y/y.
Markets saw a risk-off session following the release of weak economic data in the US. The ISM Manufacturing Index for July fell for the fourth consecutive month and remained in contraction territory (46.8), signaling weakness in the manufacturing sector. Investors also await today's release of the employment report for July.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and hinted that if inflation readings continue in the right direction, a September rate cut "could be on the table." Markets reaffirmed their expectation of three 25bp interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024. Treasury yields fell by +10bp, and US equities rallied.