Catalonia

• Catalonia is the region with the second-highest GDP, after Madrid, accounting for 19% of Spain’s total GDP.
• With a population of 8 million inhabitants (16.4% of the Spanish population), it is also the second-largest region in demographic terms, after Andalusia.
• GDP per capita is 32,550 euros, the fourth highest in the country and 15.6% above the average.
• Catalonia has a highly diversified production sector, although it is most notable for the relative importance of its manufacturing industry (16.8% of GDP vs. 12.5% of the Spanish average); in contrast, agriculture only represents 0.9% (vs. 2.6%).
• It is highly export-oriented, with goods exports accounting for 37.2% of GDP (28.9% on average), and it is the region with the highest volume of exports: 100.684 billion euros in 2023, 26.2% of the total. The main export sectors are chemical products (29.4% of the total), above all medicine; the motor vehicle industry (15.9%), and textile products (5.7%): the region accounts for almost 46% of Spanish exports of chemical products, 42% of its meat and around 30% of its motor vehicle industry, textile products and industrial machinery. Moreover, it is the region with the highest revenues from international tourism, with 18 billion euros in 2023 (21% of the total).

The Catalonian economy is showing remarkable resilience in a challenging environment. At CaixaBank Research, we estimate that GDP grew by 2.7% in 2023 (2.5% in Spain), thanks to the upturn in employment and tourism, which in turn contributed to strong performance in consumption. Exports have also been notably buoyant, especially the recovery of the motor vehicle industry.

Catalonia will be one of the most dynamic mainland regions in 2024, although it will be subdued: we expect GDP to grow by 2.0%, slightly above the Spanish average (1.9%). The curbing of inflation, wage increases and job creation will support consumption and we expect an improvement in industrial activity, above all in the motor vehicle industry. moreover, as it has a diversified production sector, the region is better prepared to make good use of European funds.

The Catalonian labour market is performing extremely well: registered workers affiliated to Social Security increased by 2.8% in 2023 (2.7% on average nationwide) and 2.6% year-on-year in February of this year (vs. 2.7), so the total number was 9.2% higher than it was in February 2019 (vs. +9.6%): in the last year, job creation in professional activities, healthcare and, above all, education has been outstanding, whereas there have been job losses in the public administration. In terms of the unemployment rate, this stood at 9.0% in Q4 2023, significantly better than the Spanish average (11.8%) and the pre-pandemic figures (10.5% in Q4 2019).

Consumption is performing on a par with the country as a whole. Retail and consumer goods (in volume) grew by 7.8% in 2023 (7.5% in Spain), so they are slightly above 2019 levels (+1.2% vs. +3.0% on average in Spain).

Industrial production has been performing poorly in recent years. In 2023, reflecting the fall in new orders and sluggish foreign demand, a drop of 0.5% was recorded (–0.8% in the country as a whole), putting it 1.7% below the 2019 level (vs. –1.2%).

Catalan exports of goods were among those that performed best at regional level in 2023, with a growth of 6.1% (–1.4% on average) –and 36.2% with regards to 2019 (vs. 31.9%)–, thanks to sales of electrical appliances, chemical products and, above all, the motor vehicle industry.

Regarding tourism, the recovery is more advanced in terms of overnight stays: in 2023, they exceeded the 2019 records by 2.1%, while in January of this year, they exceeded the January 2019 figure by 6.1% (7.3% in the country as a whole). Moreover, foreign tourist arrivals, which were still 6.2% lower in 2023, improved at the start of 2024: in January, they exceeded 2019 levels by 5.3% (+13.6% in Spain).