Castile and León
According to our estimates, Castile and León’s GDP grew by 1.9% in 2023, less than the Spanish economy (2.5%). The prolonged contraction of the agricultural sector was compounded by the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on household spending. On a positive note, supply chains returning to normal provided a boost for the industrial sector, in particular the motor vehicle industry.
- Castile and León’s GDP accounts for 4.8% of Spain’s GDP, so it is ranked seventh out of all regions.
- In terms of its population, with almost 2.4 million inhabitants, 5.0% of the total, it is the third most highly populated region. It is among the oldest regions, as 26.9% of its population is over 65 years old (national average of 20.4%).
- GDP per capita stands at 26,992 euros (2022), 4.2% below the Spanish average. The region has been catching up in recent years, against a backdrop of sharp population decline and modest economic growth.
- In terms of its productive sectors, Castile and León is notable for the relative importance of its public sector (20.9% vs. national average of 17.8%), agriculture (5.2% vs 2.6%) and its manufacturing industry (16.4% vs 12.5%), where the agri-food, motor vehicle and chemical-pharmaceutical sectors are particularly prominent. However, trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (24.4% vs 28.4%) and industry-related services (22.1% vs. 28.5%) account for a smaller share of GDP.
- Although in recent years, the region has become more export-oriented, exports of goods account for a smaller proportion of GDP (23.1%) than on average across Spain (28.9%). In 2023, it exported goods worth 17.172 billion euros, representing 4.5% of Spanish exports. The leading export sectors are the motor vehicle industry (34.1% of the total), food (18.7%) and chemical products (10.7%). The region accounts for 45% of the tyres and inner tubes exported by Spain.
Table of structural indicators
| 1992 | 2002 | 2012 | 2022 | |||
GDP per capita | Euros | 8,762 | 16,419 | 20,920 | 26,992 | ||
100 = Spain | 89.5 | 90.7 | 94.9 | 95.8 | |||
Population | Thousands of inhabitants | 2,535 | 2,464 | 2,517 | 2,384 | ||
Average annual growth over the decade (%) | –0.2 | –0.3 | 0.2 | –0.5 | |||
% of the total in Spain | 6.5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | |||
% of population > 65 years old | 18.6 | 22.7 | 23.3 | 26.5 | |||
Exports of goods as a proportion of GDP | % | … | 19.6 | 22.1 | 23.1 | ||
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According to our estimates, Castile and León’s GDP grew by 1.9% in 2023, less than the Spanish economy (2.5%). The prolonged contraction of the agricultural sector was compounded by the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on household spending. On a positive note, supply chains returning to normal provided a boost for the industrial sector, in particular the motor vehicle industry.
CaixaBank Research’s forecasts point to Castile and León continuing along an expansionary path in 2024, and it will do so at an accelerated pace, with GDP growth of 2.2% (2.4% for Spain). The positive trend in industry and exports will be supported by the motor vehicle industry and the gradual improvement of the European economies. Less adverse weather will aid the recovery of the agricultural sector, while a further roll-out of the NGEU funds should boost investment.
Castile and León’s labour market is slightly more sluggish than it is across the country as a whole. In 2023, the average number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security grew by 1.8% in the year (2.7% in Spain), picking up to 2.0% year-on-year in May (vs. 2.4%), mostly due to health and education, whereas employment fell in agriculture. In turn, the unemployment rate in Q1 2024 stood at 10.3%, 2 points below the national average.
Consumption remains sluggish in the region, due to the volume of sales of retail and consumer goods. Following the sharp decline in 2022, largely due to the inflationary environment, the upswing in 2023 was very weak (0.4% vs. 2.9% in the country as a whole), while in the early months of 2024 it further declined (–0.3% year-on-year vs +2.0%). As a result, the region is yet to return to 2019 pre-pandemic levels (–4.0% vs. +3.8% in Spain).
In 2022, after recording the worst figures out of all the regions, after being hit hard by the impact of bottlenecks in global markets and high energy costs, Castile and León’s industrial production experienced a strong upswing in 2023 (+3.1% vs. –1.4% in Spain), supported by the motor vehicle, chemical and electric power industries. It was continuing to perform strongly at the start of 2024 (+6.7% year-on-year up to April vs. +1.9%, figures without seasonal and calendar adjustments).
Castile and León’s exports of goods are recording the best figures across all regions. In 2023, thanks to the buoyancy of the motor vehicle industry, semi-manufactured goods (especially tyres and inner tubes) and food (processed foods), the region’s sales abroad grew by 15.9%, whereas the national average fell (–1.4%). This year, with figures up to March, the contrast is even greater, as they grew by 11.4% year-on-year, while in the country as a whole they fell by 9.0%.
Table of indicators
| 2008-2013 average | 2014-2019 average | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Latest figure | |
Activity and prices | Real GDP * | –1.9 | 1.9 | –8.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 2023 | |
–1.8 | 2.8 | –11.2 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.5 | ||||
Retail trade | –3.1 | 1.3 | –4.7 | 1.3 | –1.5 | 0.4 | –0.3 | April-24 | |
–5.2 | 2.3 | –5.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 | |||
Industrial production index | –5.3 | –0.1 | –9.1 | 5.2 | –3.4 | 3.1 | 6.7 | April-24 | |
–5.3 | 1.8 | –9.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | –1.4 | 1.9 | |||
Service activity index | –4.0 | 2.7 | –10.5 | 21.3 | 13.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | March-24 | |
–4.6 | 5.1 | –15.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | |||
Consumer price index | 1.8 | 0.7 | –0.6 | 3.5 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | April-24 | |
1.7 | 0.7 | –0.3 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | |||
Labour market | Registered workers affiliated to Social Security | –2.9 | 1.9 | –1.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | May-24 |
–3.1 | 3.2 | –2.1 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | |||
Registered workers affiliated to Social Security not affected by furlough | –2.9 | 1.9 | –7.7 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | May-24 | |
–3.1 | 3.2 | –9.2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | |||
Unemployment rate | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.3 | Q1 2024 | |
20.2 | 18.8 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.3 | |||
Unemployment rate for under 25s | 37.0 | 39.1 | 34.6 | 30.4 | 27.8 | 28.3 | 31.7 | Q1 2024 | |
42.5 | 42.5 | 38.3 | 44.5 | 24.4 | 28.8 | 27.7 | |||
Public sector | Public deficit | –2.4 | –0.9 | 0.6 | –0.1 | –1.1 | –0.7 | –– | 2023 |
–2.7 | –0.9 | –0.2 | 0.0 | –1.1 | –0.9 | –– | |||
Autonomous Communities public debt | 9.1 | 20.0 | 23.6 | 22.3 | 20.7 | 19.9 | –– | Q4 2023 | |
12.3 | 24.1 | 27.2 | 25.6 | 23.6 | 22.2 | –– | |||
Real estate market | Housing prices | –7.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 5.9 | Q1 2024 |
–8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 6.3 | |||
Housing sales | –13.5 | 7.7 | –11.0 | 35.8 | 11.8 | –3.4 | –4.0 | March-24 | |
–10.8 | 9.7 | –16.9 | 34.8 | 14.8 | –9.9 | –5.6 | |||
Foreign sector and tourism | Exports of goods | 5.0 | 2.8 | –8.8 | 11.1 | –0.2 | 15.9 | 11.4 | March-24 |
4.6 | 3.9 | –9.4 | 20.1 | 22.9 | –1.4 | –9.0 | |||
Tourist overnight stays | –2.5 | 4.9 | –58.8 | 66.5 | 42.2 | 6.7 | –1.1 | April-24 | |
0.7 | 3.0 | –69.2 | 78.3 | 73.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 |
Note: *The 2023 GDP figure for Autonomous Communities is an estimate made by CaixaBank Research.
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Bank of Spain, the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security (MITRAMISS), the Ministry of Finance and DataComex.
Below we show a series of charts comparing the main indicators for the various regions.