Navarre AC
In 2023, Navarre's economy performed slightly worse than on average in Spain: we expect regional GDP to grow by 2.2% (2.4% for Spain), due to weakening foreign demand, which has hampered industrial activity (the motor vehicle industry is a key sector in the region) and exports.
- Navarre has almost 672,000 inhabitants, 1.4% of the total population, making it the third least populated region in Spain.
- The region's GDP stands at 22.595 billion euros, equivalent to 1.7% of Spanish GDP, so it is the region that makes the fourth smallest contribution to the national total.
- At 33,798 euros, its GDP per capita is the third highest in the country and it is 20.0% higher than the national average (13.2% below the average in the euro area).
- Navarre's productive sectors are mainly notable for the high relative importance of the manufacturing industry, which makes up 25.8% of its GDP, the highest percentage of all the regions (national average of 12.5%): the region, which contributes 3.5% of the country's manufacturing GVA, is home to leading companies in the motor vehicle, wind power and pharmaceutical industries. However, services make up a far smaller percentage than on average in terms of trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (24.5% vs. 28.4%), and especially industry-related services (20.3% vs. 28.5%).
- Navarre is clearly export-oriented. Exports of goods, which account for 47.4% of regional GDP, the highest percentage among all regions (28.9% in Spain), totalled 10.701 billion euros in 2022, 2.7% of the national total: vehicle exports account for almost 38.0% of the total (9.0% of Spain as a whole), far ahead of industrial machinery (9.8%) and electrical appliances (9.2%).
Table of structural indicators
| 1992 | 2002 | 2012 | 2022 | |||
GDP per capita | euros | 12,513 | 22,611 | 27,029 | 33,798 | ||
100 = Spain | 127.8 | 125.0 | 122.6 | 120.0 | |||
Population | Thousands of inhabitants | 525 | 568 | 639 | 672 | ||
Average annual growth over the decade (%) | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | |||
% of total in Spain | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||
% of population > 65 years old | 15.9 | 17.9 | 18.3 | 20.5 | |||
Exports of goods as a proportion of GDP | % | … | 34.8 | 41.9 | 47.4 | ||
|
In 2023, Navarre's economy performed slightly worse than on average in Spain: we expect regional GDP to grow by 2.2% (2.4% for Spain), due to weakening foreign demand, which has hampered industrial activity (the motor vehicle industry is a key sector in the region) and exports.
This year, our forecasts indicate that Navarre's GDP will grow by 1.6%, a slightly higher rate than the national average (1.4%), thanks to an improvement in the industrial sector, which started to become noticeable towards the end of 2023. Furthermore, the improvement in real household income and the expected acceleration in the disbursement of European funds will help the economy to gain momentum over the course of the year.
The performance of Navarre's labour market is somewhat more muted than on average in Spain, with a 1.9% year-on-year rise in the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security at the end of 2023 (+2.7% in Spain), so it is now 5.5% higher than it was in December 2019 (+7.4% in Spain); job creation in the administrative sectors, hotels and restaurants, as well as education has been outstanding over the last year. Moreover, the unemployment rate stood at 9.3% of the working population in Q3 2023 (national average of 11.8%), similar to the rate at the end of 2019.
According to the retail and consumer goods index (in volume), household spending in Navarre is performing worse than in Spain as a whole. After falling sharply in 2022, against the backdrop of a steep rise in shopping basket prices, last year's recovery was more subdued: according to the figures up to November, it rose by 4.9% year-on-year (+7.7% in Spain) and it is still lower than it was in 2019 (–5.6% vs. +3.0%).
Navarre's industry, which had performed extremely well in 2021-2022 - with cumulative growth of 14.0% (+9.6% in Spain), thanks to its strong competitiveness, especially in renewable energy materials - was notably weak in 2023: the region's industrial production fell by 3.3% year-on-year in January-October (–0.8% on average nationwide), hampered by the energy sectors and motor vehicle industry, 1.5% lower than it was in 2019, a similar difference to the country as a whole.
The weakness of Europe's main economies in 2023 had a negative impact on Navarre's exports, which fell by 3.8% year-on-year in January-October, whereas they stagnated in Spain: the decline in sales of motor vehicles and semi-finished goods (in particular paper, chemical products and metals) was partially offset by the strong performance of capital goods (engines and electrical appliances) and food (fruit and pulses). This means that Navarre is the only region in mainland Spain not to have returned to 2019 levels (–0.3% vs. +31.2% in Spain).
Table of indicators
| 2008-2013 average | 2014-2019 average | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Gap with 2019 (latest figure) | Latest figure | |
Activity and prices | Real GDP* | –1.5 | 2.7 | –10.3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2023 |
–1.8 | 2.8 | –11.2 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | |||
Retail trade | –3.8 | 1.3 | –3.6 | –1.9 | –4.3 | 4.9 | –1.2 | November-23 | |
–4.6 | 2.3 | –5.6 | 2.6 | –1.0 | 7.7 | 4.8 | |||
Industrial production index | –5.7 | 3.1 | –11.4 | 10.4 | 3.2 | –3.3 | –20.3 | October-23 | |
–5.3 | 1.8 | –9.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | –0.8 | –6.1 | |||
Service activity index | –5.0 | 5.1 | –10.2 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 1.8 | 23.0 | October-23 | |
–4.6 | 5.1 | –15.6 | 15.8 | 19.9 | 3.0 | 17.3 | |||
Consumer price index | 1.6 | 0.8 | –0.6 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 16.0 | November-23 | |
1.7 | 0.7 | –0.3 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 15.4 | |||
Labour market | Registered workers affiliated to Social Security | –2.7 | 2.9 | –0.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 5.5 | December-23 |
–3.1 | 3.2 | –2.1 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 7.4 | |||
Registered workers affiliated to Social Security not affected by furlough | –2.7 | 2.9 | –6.0 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 6.6 | December-23 | |
–3.1 | 3.2 | –9.2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 8.4 | |||
Unemployment rate | 12.8 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 9.3 | — | Q3 2023 | |
20.2 | 18.8 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 11.8 | — | |||
Unemployment rate for under 25s | 32.5 | 33.5 | 25.6 | 23.0 | 22.4 | 29.1 | — | Q3 2023 | |
42.5 | 42.5 | 38.3 | 44.7 | 23.9 | 27.8 | — | |||
Public sector | Public deficit | –3.1 | –0.2 | –0.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | — | Q3 2023 |
–2.7 | –0.9 | –0.2 | 0.0 | –1.1 | –0.1 | — | |||
Autonomous Communities public debt | 10.8 | 19.2 | 19.1 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 13.1 | — | Q3 2023 | |
12.3 | 24.1 | 27.2 | 25.6 | 23.6 | 22.3 | — | |||
Real estate market | Housing prices | –9.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 20.8 | Q3 2023 |
–8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 19.1 | |||
Housing sales | –9.6 | 5.4 | –13.8 | 33.1 | 3.8 | –3.1 | 30.8 | October-23 | |
–10.8 | 9.7 | –16.9 | 34.8 | 14.8 | –8.7 | 5.9 | |||
Foreign sector and tourism | Exports of goods | 3.1 | 4.6 | –12.6 | 6.5 | 12.7 | –3.8 | –7.6 | October-23 |
4.6 | 3.9 | –9.4 | 20.1 | 22.9 | 0.0 | 20.0 | |||
Tourist overnight stays | 1.0 | 5.3 | –52.5 | 71.1 | 24.6 | 8.3 | –3.6 | November-23 | |
0.7 | 3.0 | –69.2 | 78.3 | 73.3 | 7.1 | 4.4 |
Notes: *The 2023 GDP figure is an estimate made by CaixaBank Research.
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Bank of Spain, the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security (MITRAMISS), the Ministry of Finance and DataComex.
Below we show a series of charts comparing the main indicators for the various regions.