Aragón

• Aragón has 1.35 million inhabitants, the 11th largest region in the country with 2.8% of the total population.
• The region’s GDP (37.964 billion euros) represents 3.1% of the national total, putting it in tenth place in the overall ranking.
• Aragón’s GDP per capita (28,912 euros) is one of the highest in the country and 13.4% above the Spanish average. Its relative position has improved in recent years, thanks both to the region’s economic growth and, above all, its low demographic dynamism.
• Aragón’s productive sectors are notable for the high relative importance of the manufacturing industry (18.4% of GDP vs. 12.8% on average in Spain), in particular the motor vehicle industry, food and agriculture (7.0% vs. 2.9%). However, it has a lower share in trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (22.9% vs. 26.2%) and industry-related services (22.6% vs. 29.2%).
• The region stands out for being highly export-oriented: goods exports account for the third-highest proportion of regional GDP in the country (38.0% vs. 26.2% of the Spanish average). In 2022 its goods exports amounted to 16.423 billion euros, 4.2% of Spanish exports. The leading export sectors are food, chiefly meat (11.0%), semi-finished goods, in particular chemicals (11.1%) and, above all, the motor vehicle industry (25.1%). It should be noted that 32.0% of domestic appliances exported by Spain come from Aragón.

According to CaixaBank Research estimates, Aragón’s GDP grew by 5.3% in 2022, less than the Spanish economy as a whole (5.8%). The economy, which is heavily dependent on the food and motor vehicle industries, weathered the impact of rising energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains with relative success. In turn, household spending was also affected by the climate of high inflation.

For 2023, our forecasts indicate GDP growth of 2.2%, slightly below the national average (2.4%). The gradual weakening of foreign demand will dampen industrial activity and exports, while household spending will be constrained by inflation and rising interest rates. On the plus side, there will be a surge in investment when EU funds are disbursed.

The trend for employment in the region is somewhat less dynamic than it is across the country: last year, there was a 2.3% increase in registered workers affiliated to Social Security (3.9% in Spain) and, after growing by 2.5% year-on-year in September 2023 (vs. 2.7%), the total number is 4.6% higher than it was in 2019 (+7.3% in Spain); over the last year, job creation in hotels and restaurants, transportation and, above all, education has offset the job losses in the public sector. In turn, the unemployment rate is among the lowest in the country: in Q2 2023 it stood at 8.6% (11.6% in Spain), which is even lower than it was at the end of 2019 (9.9%).

Consumption is performing better than on average across the country: against the backdrop of a steep rise in shopping basket prices, sales of retail and consumer goods (in volume) fell by 4.0% in 2022 (–1.0% in the whole of Spain) and, despite the upturn this year, 5.3% year-on-year up to August (vs. 8.0%), they remain far below 2019 levels (–0.7% vs. +2.8%).

However, industrial production is performing significantly better than average, with one of the sharpest rises of all regions in 2022 (5.1% vs. 2.4% in Spain); despite the sharp slowdown this year, the figures for the country as a whole are still improving (0.8% year-on-year in January-August vs. –0.6%), exceeding pre-pandemic levels (+0.4% vs. –1.2%).

Aragón’s exports of goods were somewhat less buoyant than in Spain as a whole in 2022, with growth of 13.9% (vs. 22.9%), with semi-finished goods, in particular chemicals, iron and steel, and capital goods, primarily industrial machinery, being noteworthy. This year (with figures up to August), growth has slowed to 4.7% year-on-year, a higher rate, in any event, than in Spain (1.8%), thanks to the upturn in the food and motor vehicle industries, so the total number is 30.6% higher than the figures for 2019 (vs. the national average of +32.6%).