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FORECASTS
|
Average for the last month in the period, unless otherwise specified | |||||||
|
Financial markets | |||||||
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 | |
|
INTEREST RATES |
|||||||
|
Dollar | |||||||
|
Fed funds (lower limit) |
3.18 |
0.54 |
0.67 |
5.25 |
4.25 |
4.00 |
3.75 |
|
3-month SOFR |
3.62 |
1.01 |
1.07 |
5.37 |
4.37 |
4.07 |
3.85 |
|
12-month SOFR |
3.86 |
1.48 |
1.48 |
4.95 |
4.19 |
4.01 |
3.93 |
|
2-year government bonds |
3.70 |
1.04 |
1.21 |
4.46 |
4.24 |
4.35 |
4.10 |
|
10-year government bonds |
4.69 |
2.57 |
1.76 |
4.01 |
4.40 |
4.80 |
4.50 |
|
Euro | |||||||
|
ECB depo |
2.05 |
0.20 |
–0.30 |
4.00 |
3.09 |
1.75 |
2.00 |
|
ECB refi |
3.05 |
0.75 |
0.20 |
4.50 |
3.24 |
1.90 |
2.15 |
|
€STR |
– |
–0.54 |
–0.38 |
3.90 |
3.06 |
1.70 |
2.06 |
|
1-month Euribor |
3.18 |
0.50 |
–0.32 |
3.86 |
2.89 |
1.74 |
2.10 |
|
3-month Euribor |
3.24 |
0.65 |
–0.21 |
3.94 |
2.83 |
1.76 |
2.11 |
|
6-month Euribor |
3.29 |
0.78 |
–0.07 |
3.93 |
2.63 |
1.91 |
2.14 |
|
12-month Euribor |
3.40 |
0.96 |
0.10 |
3.68 |
2.44 |
2.09 |
2.18 |
|
Germany | |||||||
|
2-year government bonds |
3.41 |
0.35 |
–0.21 |
2.55 |
2.02 |
1.87 |
1.96 |
|
10-year government bonds |
4.30 |
1.54 |
0.14 |
2.11 |
2.22 |
2.00 |
2.15 |
|
Spain | |||||||
|
3-year government bonds |
3.62 |
1.69 |
0.18 |
2.77 |
2.26 |
2.41 |
2.58 |
|
5-year government bonds |
3.91 |
2.19 |
0.38 |
2.75 |
2.48 |
2.52 |
2.72 |
|
10-year government bonds |
4.42 |
3.17 |
0.99 |
3.09 |
2.90 |
2.70 |
2.95 |
|
Risk premium |
11 |
164 |
85 |
98 |
68 |
70 |
80 |
|
Portugal | |||||||
|
3-year government bonds |
3.68 |
3.33 |
0.07 |
2.33 |
2.03 |
1.95 |
2.10 |
|
5-year government bonds |
3.96 |
3.94 |
0.35 |
2.42 |
2.15 |
2.16 |
2.36 |
|
10-year government bonds |
4.49 |
4.67 |
0.96 |
2.74 |
2.68 |
2.55 |
2.85 |
|
Risk premium |
19 |
314 |
82 |
63 |
46 |
55 |
70 |
|
EXCHANGE RATES | |||||||
|
EUR/USD (dollars per euro) |
1.13 |
1.26 |
1.13 |
1.09 |
1.05 |
1.02 |
1.08 |
|
EUR/GBP (pounds per euro) |
0.66 |
0.84 |
0.87 |
0.86 |
0.83 |
0.81 |
0.80 |
|
EUR/JPY (yen per euro) |
129.56 |
126.41 |
129.91 |
156.99 |
161.18 |
158.00 |
154.00 |
|
OIL PRICE | |||||||
|
Brent ($/barrel) |
42.3 |
80.1 |
71.0 |
77.3 |
73.1 |
73.5 |
69.2 |
|
Brent (euros/barrel) |
36.4 |
62.5 |
63.9 |
70.9 |
69.8 |
72.1 |
64.0 |
|
Forecasts | |||||||