Financial Markets Daily Report

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The dovish hike delivered by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen comments, signaling that regulators are not considering a broad expansion of deposit insurance, centered the stage in financial markets. 

Renewed appetite for risk extended across financial markets on Tuesday, as widespread fears over the health of the banking sector abated and investors instead looked ahead for the monetary policy announcements at the Federal Reserve today. ECB President Christine Lagarde is also due to make a speech this morning.

On Monday, volatility continued to dominate financial markets. While the session started with losses in stock indices and sharp declines in sovereign yields, sentiment improved throughout the day following the communication by some ECB officials. Equities closed higher and yields on sovereign bonds rose in the US and were mixed in the euro area.

In the last session of the week, investors’ concerns about liquidity shortage in the banking system continued to dominate the scenario and risk-aversion set the tone in financial markets.

Volatility remained elevated across financial markets on Thursday, in a session characterized by risk-on sentiment. In line with expectations, the ECB announced a 50 bp hike in its policy interest rates, although refusing to pre-commit to a given size and pace of future adjustments, instead reiterating a data-dependency approach.

Risk aversion extended across financial markets during a volatile session on Wednesday, fueled by concerns about the health of the banking sector in Europe, in the aftermath of the collapse of some regional banks in the US and renewed concerns about the financial position of Swiss lender Credit Suisse.

Risk appetite returned to the fore on Tuesday, as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy across major central banks in the aftermath of the turmoil generated by the collapse of two regional banks in the US.

Concerns about the health of the banking sector and the potential implications for the trajectory of monetary policy remained the key themes during a volatile session on Monday. Money markets showed a notable correction in expectations for terminal policy rates in both the US (5% in May) and the eurozone (3% in September).

Volatility and risk aversion continued to set the tone across financial markets in the last session of the week. On the one hand, investors sentiment continued to be impaired by liquidity concerns in the banking sector, sparked by the crisis and subsequent closure by regulators of a small tech-focused financial group in the US (SVB).

Investors continued to trade with caution, taking position ahead of the publication today of the crucial US payrolls report for February. Data released on Thursday showed an unexpected increase in new jobless claims last week (to 211,000), which contrasted with signals from other surveys pointing to further tightening in the labour market.

Speaking in the second day in Congress, Fed President Powell clarified that no decision had yet been made about the pace of monetary policy tightening, noting that the FOMC would consider higher rate hikes only if the totality of the data pointed in that direction. Before the next meeting, February inflation and employment data will be released.

Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric before the US Senate pushed upwards the financial market expectations for interest rates path ahead. In particular, investors now attach a higher probability to a 50bp hike than to a 25bp move at March’s meeting.