Robust growth across virtually all sectors, but with some differences
In 2024, the Spanish economy has exhibited widespread growth across virtually all of its sectors: the number of sectors in a situation of weakness has reduced, while that of sectors in expansion has increased, following the gradual absorption of the major shocks that affected their performance in recent years.
December 18th, 2024
- In 2024, the Spanish economy has recorded widespread growth across virtually all of its sectors. The CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator – a tool which encompasses information from a variety of indicators covering economic activity, the labour market and the external sector – shows that the number of sectors in a situation of weakness has reduced, while that of sectors in expansion has increased, following the gradual absorption of the major shocks that affected their performance in recent years.
- The tourism sector has continued to break records and is a key driver of growth in the Spanish economy. However, its growth has moderated as part of the normalisation process after overcoming the effects of the pandemic. In addition to tourism, high value-added services are also enjoying significant growth, including information and communication technologies, and professional, scientific and technical activities – sectors that are increasingly selling abroad and which offer high growth potential.
- Also of note is the boom in some branches of manufacturing, such as the chemicals, pharmaceuticals and paper industries, driven by the fall in energy costs and the increase in exports. On the other hand, the automotive sector has slowed significantly, following the strong rebound in 2023, in a context of fierce competition in the production of electric vehicles. Indeed, we dedicate an article to analysing the state of the automotive industry, which is a key sector for the Spanish economy in terms of employment, innovation and its positive contribution to the balance of trade. In the midst of the transformation towards electrified and digitalised vehicles, the sector must focus on the development and implementation of high-value-added activities in order to strengthen its competitiveness in a market that is in the midst of a revolution.
- The 2025 outlook looks promising, although there will be differences in growth rates between sectors. In the second article we present our growth forecasts by sector. The sectors where we expect to see a high and accelerating growth rate primarily include those linked to the digital transition (information and communication technologies, and professional services). Construction and real estate activities also stand out, as they will benefit from the rate cuts which, although initiated in 2024, will have their greatest impact on the real economy in 2025.
- Other sectors will enjoy above-average growth but will also experience a slowdown relative to the high growth rates of 2024. These include the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, which is still recovering following the sharp drop in 2022 triggered by the drought and the rise in production costs; tourism, which is seeing a normalisation of its growth rate after the pandemic, and the manufacturing industry, which will continue to enjoy strong growth despite the gradual fading of the boost provided by the reduction in energy costs.
- Finally, in the last article we analyse how the transition to a more sustainable production system is taking place. 92.2% of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 came from manufacturing, energy, transport and the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. While the energy and manufacturing sectors have reduced their emissions through the use of renewable energies and efficiency gains, transport and the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector show limited progress. Electrification and the adoption of clean technologies such as green hydrogen are essential in order to accelerate the transition, and the NGEU funds are critical for making progress towards sustainability. The execution of those funds is progressing, with significant investments in rail transport, but there is significant potential to accelerate the decarbonisation of industry, transport and the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector.