La Rioja

• La Rioja has just over 324,000 inhabitants, 0.7% of the whole country, making it the least populated region in Spain.
• The GDP of La Rioja is 9.502 billion euros, which accounts for 0.7% of Spanish GDP, and it is also the region that makes the smallest contribution to the national total.
• With a GDP per capita of 29,579 euros, it is ranked seventh in the country and it is 5.0% higher than the Spanish average, although the gap with the average has been narrowing due to slower economic growth.
• The region’s productive sectors are notable for the relative importance of the agricultural and manufacturing industries, which account for 5.2% and 21.2% of GDP respectively (2.6% and 12.5% in Spain); wine deserves a special mention, as it is the fifth largest wine-producing region - the second largest in per capita terms. However, the tertiary sector is of relatively little importance, in trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (23.2% vs. 28.4%), and industry-related services (21.3% vs. 28.5%).
• Although goods exports account for a significantly lower percentage of GDP than the national average (21.9% vs. 28.9%), notable growth has been recorded in recent years. In 2023, La Rioja exported goods worth 2.281 billion euros, 0.6% of all Spanish exports: almost 38% of exported goods are agri-food products, in particular wine, followed by fruit, pulses and processed foods; these are followed by footwear (8.3% of the total) and chemical products (5.9%), especially plastics.

At CaixaBank Research, we estimate that La Rioja’s GDP grew by 2.7% in 2024, at a rate similar to the Spanish average (2.8%). The strength of exports contrasted with the prolonged decline of industry and modest figures for household spending, against a backdrop of sluggish employment.

For 2025, our forecasts indicate GDP growth of 2.2% (2.3% on average across the country). Household spending should gain momentum, given the improving inflation picture and falling interest rates. Furthermore, the disbursement of NGEU funds is accelerating, which will boost investment and the business sector. In the strong primary sector, estimates for the 2024-2025 marketing year are encouraging, thanks to favourable weather and a slight easing of production costs. On a less positive note, the weakness of the euro area, hampered by Germany, will not aid the recovery of industry.

La Rioja’s labour market is slightly more sluggish than it is nationally. After the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security grew by 1.4% in 2023 (compared to an average of 2.7% in Spain), this figure is rising this year, although it is still growing at a below-average rate of 1.7% year-on-year (vs. 2.3%). Over the last year, job creation in administrative activities, education and healthcare has been outstanding, in contrast to the heavy job losses in the manufacturing industry. As for the unemployment rate, in Q2 2024 it stood at 9.1%, below the Spanish average (11.3%).

Service activities are also performing somewhat more sluggishly than in the rest of the country. The volume of retail trade sales grew by 1.7% in 2023 (2.9% on average nationally) and by 1.5% year-on-year in January-August this year (vs. 1.6%), so it is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels (–0.3% vs. +3.7%).

As far as La Rioja’s industrial sector is concerned, the IPI figures have been very poor in recent years. After recording one of the country’s sharpest declines in 2023 (–6.4% vs. –1.4% in Spain), it continued to fall in 2024, dropping by 0.7% year-on-year in the first eight months, whereas it rose by 4.0% nationwide; so it remains far below where it stood in 2019 (–12.2% vs. –1.2%).

Exports of goods from La Rioja were among the best performers in 2023, with growth of 9.5% (–1.4% in Spain), supported by sales of semi-manufactured goods (especially chemical products) and some types of food, such as processed foods; however, exports of meat and wine suffered a sharp downturn. Despite the slowdown seen in 2024 (+3.6% year-on-year in January-July), they remain above the national average (–0.9%).