Tourism sector: dynamic in 2023, strong in 2024
After the sharp downturn in the sector caused by the pandemic, the recovery of international tourism in Spain can now be considered almost complete. Among the world’s top 10 tourism destinations, Spain was the second to exceed its number of pre-COVID international tourists, behind only Türkiye.
January 31st, 2024
- After the sharp downturn in the sector caused by the pandemic, the recovery of international tourism in Spain can now be considered almost complete. Among the world’s top 10 tourism destinations, Spain was the second to exceed its number of pre-COVID international tourists, behind only Türkiye. These good figures have brought the country to a very remarkable milestone: Spain became the world’s number one tourist destination in 2023, overtaking France for the very first time. Specifically, we estimate that Spain received around 84 million tourists while France received some 78-82 million, according to estimates by the French Ministry of Tourism.
- By residence country of inbound tourists, the sharp rise in tourists from the US stands out, with almost 40% more arrivals than in 2022 and over 16% more than in 2019, reflecting the efforts made to attract long-haul markets and higher average expenditure. Tourism from the European Union was more modestly above its 2019 levels due to weakness in the Nordic countries, affected by an unfavourable exchange rate, and Germany. In contrast, British tourism, which started the year with somewhat modest figures, has livened up throughout 2023, which is excellent news for the sector’s prospects as the United Kingdom is Spain’s main source of foreign tourists.
- This revival in international tourist arrivals, together with high inflation, has boosted tourist spending. Between January and November 2023, international tourist expenditure was 16.6% higher than in 2019. Domestic tourism, meanwhile, also performed well in 2023: in the first three quarters of the year, domestic expenditure was 22.2% higher than the figure for the same dates in 2019. This is very positive and reflects the fact that Spanish tourists have taken longer to travel abroad than international tourists to return to Spain. However, it also suggests a downward trend for growth in domestic tourism over the short term, as the Spanish get back to taking foreign holidays.
- In 2024 we expect the positive trend in Spain’s tourism sector to continue but it should also be noted that growth rates will gradually normalise since the recovery from the pandemic is now complete. Specifically, CaixaBank Research expects tourism GDP growth to fall from 6.9% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024.
- Among the main factors that will continue to support Spain’s tourism sector, and which we analyse in the second article of this Report, are, firstly, the improved purchasing power in the main residence countries of Spain’s inbound tourism, thanks to a drop in inflation and a moderate increase in wages. Secondly, Spain’s greater geopolitical stability compared to its rival countries will also continue to work in favour of the sector. Nevertheless, factors such as the euro area’s weak economic growth and the recovery of Spanish tourism abroad will limit its expansion.
- Finally, the last article of the Report examines a risk for Spain’s tourism sector: the rise in temperatures as a result of climate change. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2023 was the hottest year in the planet’s history. The analysis we have carried out of CaixaBank POS card payments during the summer heatwaves of 2023 shows how tourists reduce their spending at the hottest time of the day. Although expenditure increases at night, the overall balance is negative and suggests that the sector needs to be prepared and invest in adapting to more torrid and volatile temperatures.
