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Immigration plays an essential role in ensuring the sustainability of demographics and employment in an ageing society with a very low birth rate like that of Spain. In this article we analyse the recent evolution of immigration flows into Spain, their geographical distribution and their socio-economic characteristics.

We disaggregate job creation among the main branches of economic activity in order to assess whether the improvement in the labour market is widespread or is concentrated in certain sectors and is due to specific factors.

The relative improvement in international prices of agricultural goods has barely been reflected in global consumer prices. The main reason for this is the depreciation of many countries’ currencies against the dollar, which intensified with the Fed’s first interest rate hike.

The feeling is that we are close to a turning point, after which the effects of the monetary tightening process that have accumulated in the last year and a half.

In February, we wrote that we could expect to see a cooling of the US economy at some point in 2023, a view shared by most analysts. However, what we have seen in the year to date is an economy that continues to grow with unusual strength considering the current environment of high interest rates.

The interaction of the dynamics (and imbalances) that had been at play since the outbreak of the pandemic, with the new reality in the face of heightened geopolitical instability and rising rates, comprise a new and challenging scenario in which households, businesses and governments alike will need to adapt their decisions.

The Chinese authorities seem willing to tolerate a slower pace of growth, prioritising economic security. What implications will this new macroeconomic environment have for China and what will be the ramifications globally?

Since its implementation on 15 June, the so-called Iberian «gas cap» mechanism has brought about a major shift in the way the Spanish electricity system operates. In this article we analyse the effect it has had on electricity prices and some externalities it has introduced.

A sense of unstable balance will dominate the performance of the economy throughout 2024 – something which we will no doubt have to get used to and which will demand considerable flexibility among economic agents when it comes to making decisions. Such are the times in which we live.

The pace of growth of the Spanish economy has slowed, as evidenced by the lower GDP growth rate recorded in Q3. The main reason for this is the weakness of the external environment: the euro area has registered a slight decline in economic activity and its three main economies are stagnant. In contrast, the statistics for household consumption in Spain, one of the pillars of the economy, remain strong.

In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year. The first theme is precisely how difficult it will be to recover a balance in the macroeconomy, in a world in which geopolitical instability has reached levels not seen in many decades.

The energy crisis has served as an incentive within the EU to accelerate the transition to energy sources that are more environmentally friendly and less dependent on fossil fuels, but this is seen as more of a medium-term goal.

Broadly speaking, there are three key factors which define the new macroeconomic picture of the Spanish economy that we have elaborated here at CaixaBank Research, and which are shared by most of the institutions that have updated their forecasts.

The biggest expansionary deployment from monetary policy in history is still in force today, and the recent shift in strategy by the world’s two major central banks – which let us not forget was intended to encourage an increase in inflation expectations – is currently in its trial phase.

The key for the coming months will be to reach the turning point in the pattern of inflation, at which point an end will be in sight for the most aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes in the last 40 years, and this in turn ought to reduce volatility in the financial markets.

We outline the five assumptions that must be met in order for the factors that are holding back economic growth to dissipate and for the outlook with which the year has begun to be confirmed.

The Spanish economy continues to have the highest structural unemployment rate in the European Union, despite having managed to reduce it substantially in recent years. To curb it, improvements are needed on three fronts: greater supply and demand for employment and better matching between the two.

With the major developed economies at the peak of a restrictive monetary policy cycle, we wonder how the US stock market has digested it.

In a context of unusually high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have stepped up and are in the midst of the monetary policy normalisation process, albeit at different rates.

This time monetary policy cannot and should not be the main tool used to tackle the crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine. It cannot, because interest rates are already at very low levels. Moreover, the high inflation is forcing the central banks to act with extreme caution.