Financial Markets Daily Report02 April 2024
In yesterday’s session investors continued to assess the probability that the Fed will deliver 3-4 rate cuts this year given the strength of recent macroeconomic data. In particular, the February PCE deflator grew 2.5% y/y, up from 2.4% last month, and manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in March as the PMI increased to 50.3 from 47.8.
- In yesterday’s session investors continued to assess the probability that the Fed will deliver 3-4 rate cuts this year given the strength of recent macroeconomic data. In particular, the February PCE deflator grew 2.5% y/y, up from 2.4% last month, and manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in March as the PMI increased to 50.3 from 47.8.
- In this context, US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield climbing more than 10 bp, and US equities edged lower. Futures markets are now expecting a first rate cut by the Fed in June with a 62% probability, slightly down from 68% last week. Euro area markets were closed for Easter holiday.
- Elsewhere, equities were mixed in Asia, with Chinese shares extending gains and Japanese stocks retreating following a heated rally. This week, the main macro data releases include US ISM services index (Thursday), US march employment report (Friday), euro area March CPI (Wednesday).