• The Basque Country, with 2.23 million inhabitants (4.6% of the total), is the region with the eighth largest population in Spain.
• The Autonomous Community’s total GDP is 79.350 billion euros, representing 5.9% of Spanish GDP, so it has the fifth highest GDP in Spain.
• GDP per capita (35,832 euros) is the second highest in Spain (27.2% higher than the country as a whole). Álava is the province with the highest GDP per capita in the country, 50.5% above the average.
• The Basque Country’s productive sectors are notable for the relative importance of the manufacturing industry (21.2% of GDP vs. 12.5% on average nationwide), ranked second in the country, behind Navarre. It accounts for 10% of Spain’s manufacturing output, primarily manufacturing machinery, capital goods, metal products and transport equipment. However, the contribution made by services and, above all, agriculture is far below average.
• Its strong focus on industry explains why exports of goods account for a high proportion of regional GDP (41.0%) – almost 12 points above the national average. It has total export sales of 32.640 billion euros (2023), 8.5% of all Spanish exports. The main goods exported are motor vehicles (18.5% of the total) and capital goods, especially industrial machinery (11.7%) and transport equipment (10.8%). The region exports 20% of the country’s industrial machinery, 33% of its iron and steel and 41% of its tyres and inner tubes.

In 2024, the Basque economy is less buoyant than it is across Spain as a whole: we estimate that GDP will grow by 2.4% (vs. 2.8%). This below-average growth is mainly due to the weakness of industry, which is highly important in the region, which in turn has been impacted by sluggish foreign demand for goods. On a positive note, residential construction and services, especially trade, hotels and restaurants, and transportation, are performing strongly.

Our forecasts indicate GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025, slightly above the national average (2.3%). Thanks to the strong structural positioning of its industry, it is one of the best placed regions to benefit from European funds. Coupled with lower financing costs and a less restrictive monetary policy, we expect investment to be a driver of growth. Meanwhile, easing inflation and interest rate cuts will help to revive consumption.

The Basque labour market is slightly more sluggish than across the country as a whole. After increasing by 1.6% in 2023, 1.1 points below the average, the rise in the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security has slowed in 2024, increasing by 1.2% year-on-year in October, practically half the rate in Spain (2.5%): job creation in professional activities, education and hotels and restaurants has been outstanding over the last year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been among the lowest in the country (7.6% in Q3 2024 vs. 11.2% on average).

The volume of sales of retail and consumer goods shows that, after the sharp fall recorded in 2022, one of the steepest of all regions, over the last two years household spending has been on a par with Spain as a whole, growing by 2.6% in 2023 and 1.8% year-on-year in January to September 2024 (national average of 2.9% and 1.6%, respectively). However, this volume is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels (2019): specifically, it is 1.4% lower (vs. +3.8% in Spain).

The Basque Country’s buoyant industrial activity in 2022, supported by the energy sectors (the region has a refinery), was dampened last year, with a sharp decline in the IPI (–3.0% vs. –1.6% in Spain), hit by energy market conditions returning to normal and weakening global demand. This year, with figures up to September, the downturn has continued, with a 0.7% year-on-year decline (vs. +0.2%), so it remains far below where it stood in 2019 (–5.4% vs. –1.7% for the country as a whole).

As with industry, Basque exports slowed down considerably in 2023 and practically stagnated, although they were better than the figures for Spain as a whole (0.3% vs. –1.4%): there was a notable upturn in exports of capital goods (especially transport equipment and industrial machinery) and motor vehicles, although there was a sharp decline in sales of energy products, which were hit by the price correction of oil products and semi-finished goods, especially metals. The negative trend continues in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.7%
up to August (–0.5% in Spain).