Activity & growth
Sectoral Observatory
The CaixaBank Research Sectoral Observatory
With this report we inaugurate the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer an analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the perspective of its sectors. This publication complements the Sectoral Report series, in which we offer an in-depth analysis of some of Spain’s key economic sectors: real estate, tourism, agrifood and industry.
- With this report we inaugurate the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer an analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the perspective of its sectors. This publication complements the Sectoral Report series, in which we offer an in-depth analysis of some of Spain’s key economic sectors: real estate, tourism, agrifood and industry.
- The goal of the Sectoral Observatory is to take a deeper look at the underlying dynamics behind macroeconomic developments, offering a comprehensive view of the various economic sectors’ performance over time. In order to compare the evolution of the different sectors, we have built the CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator, an innovative tool that combines information from various economic activity indicators, the labour market and the foreign sector. This information is then homogenised in order to provide a comparative view of the performance of each of Spain’s economic sectors. In the methodology note of the first article of this Observatory we provide details of how the indicator is calculated.
- The analysis we have carried out, based on the CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator, reveals that the significant shocks which Spain’s economy endured between 2020 and 2023 (the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, and the rise in inflation and in interest rates), had a widely varying impact on each of the 24 sectors considered in the analysis, leading to greater dispersion in their rate of economic activity growth. As these shocks have been gradually absorbed, the behaviour of the different sectors is becoming increasingly homogeneous. This trend towards decreased dispersion is particularly apparent in the closing months of 2023 and the first few months of 2024, reflecting the fact that the economy is moving towards a more stable growth cycle, as foreseen by our sector forecasts, which we present in the second article of this report. Some of the sectors in which we expect to see the highest growth rates in 2024-2025 include those linked to the digital transition (such as information and communication technologies, and professional services) and sectors in which Spain is highly competitive (such as the pharmaceutical or tourism sectors).
- In the third article of this report, we focus on Spain’s manufacturing, a sector that is beginning to show signs of recovery after having endured global supply chain disruptions, a sharp increase in costs (energy and other inputs), the impact of rising interest rates and a slowdown of foreign demand. Looking back on 2023 we see a mix of positives and negatives. On the one hand, in terms of GVA and employment, the sector continued to grow and now exceeds pre-pandemic values. In contrast, manufacturing exports, weighed down by higher costs and weakened foreign demand, fell by 7.6% in volume terms in 2023.
- Indeed, in the last article of this report we analyse the pattern of exports by sector. While exports of goods fell in 2023, we find that exports of services – both tourism and non-tourism – performed very well indeed. Considering the decline in energy prices and interest rates, coupled with the prospect of a revival of the major European economies over the coming quarters, all the indications suggest that exports of goods will recover during the course of 2024. As for services, the growth potential in the medium and long term is significant, taking into account the international appeal which Spain currently enjoys in sectors such as tourism and the residential market, as well as the boost which digitalisation is providing to the professional services and ICT sectors.