Galicia
According to CaixaBank Research estimates, Galicia’s GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2024, slightly less than the Spanish economy as a whole (2.8%). Exports are strong and industry is recovering, especially its powerful motor vehicle industry, whereas consumption is weak, hit by the slowdown in employment.
- Galicia’s GDP is 69.830 billion euros, 5.2% of the national total, placing it sixth in the overall ranking.
- In demographic terms, the region has 2.71 million inhabitants, 5.6% of Spain’s total population. It is among the regions with the oldest populations in the country: 26.6% of the population is over the age of 65 (20.4% on average).
- GDP per capita (2022) stands at 25,906 euros, around 8% below the national average, although it has been making up ground in recent years, not so much due to notable growth in its GDP, more due to a slight decline in its population.
- As for its productive sectors, Galicia stands out for the relative importance of its primary sector (4.0% vs. national average of 2.6%), extractive industry (5.8% vs. 4.9%) and construction (6.2% vs. 5.4%). In contrast, industry-related services account for a far smaller percentage (23.2% vs. 28.5%) of GDP.
- Galicia is notably export-oriented: goods exports represent 42.8% of GDP, almost 14 points above the national average and the country’s second highest percentage. In 2023 it exported goods worth 30.038 billion euros, 7.8% of all Spanish exports; the leading exporting sectors are: textiles (23.1% of the total), the motor vehicle industry (19.0%) and food (13.6%), especially fish. The region exports 37% of the country’s textile products and over half of its fish products.
Table of structural indicators
|
1992 |
2002 |
2012 |
2022 |
|||
GDP per capita |
Euros |
7,732 |
14,256 |
19,513 |
25,906 |
||
100 = Spain |
79.0 |
78.8 |
88.5 |
92.0 |
|||
Population |
Thousands of inhabitants |
2,731 |
2,705 |
2,761 |
2,699 |
||
Average annual growth over the decade (%) |
–0.3 |
–0.1 |
0.2 |
–0.2 |
|||
% of the total in Spain |
7.0 |
6.5 |
5.9 |
5.6 |
|||
% of population > 65 years old |
17.1 |
21.3 |
23.1 |
26.3 |
|||
Exports of goods as a proportion of GDP |
% |
… |
25.3 |
30.9 |
42.8 |
||
|
According to CaixaBank Research estimates, Galicia’s GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2024, slightly less than the Spanish economy as a whole (2.8%). Exports are strong and industry is recovering, especially its powerful motor vehicle industry, whereas consumption is weak, hit by the slowdown in employment.
For 2025, our forecasts indicate GDP growth of 2.2% in Galicia, slightly below the national average (2.3%). Against a backdrop of easing price pressures and falling interest rates, we expect household spending to pick up. Moreover, a key factor that could boost investment and business activity is the faster roll-out of EU funds. However, exports could be dampened by the weakness of the euro area’s main partners.
The Galician labour market is slightly more sluggish than across the country as a whole. The number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security grew by 1.7% in 2023, compared to 2.7% in Spain, while this year has seen a similar trend: 1.4% growth year-on-year in September (vs. 2.3% on average) was supported by job creation in professional activities, education and healthcare, although there were heavy job losses in the agricultural sector. In turn, in Q2 2024 the unemployment rate stood at 9.5%, almost 2 points below the national average (11.3%).
After the sharp decline in household spending in 2022, which was hard hit by rising inflation, the subsequent recovery has been more subdued than in the country as a whole. As such, the volume of retail trade sales grew by 0.9% in 2023 (2.9% in Spain) and by 1.1% year-on-year in January-August this year (vs. 1.6%).
Once the global market supply problems from the previous year were overcome, Galicia’s industrial production recovered in 2023 and recorded scant growth of 0.8%, which was, in any event, better than the figures for Spain as a whole (–1.4%). In the first eight months of this year, regional IPI recovered strongly, recording an increase of 1.9% year-on-year, without any seasonal and calendar adjustments (0.4% for Spain). However, it is yet to return to 2019 levels (–1.8% vs. –1.2% in Spain).
Goods exports are holding up better than in the country as a whole. In 2023, they grew by 0.5% (–1.4% in Spain): the buoyancy of sales of capital goods, especially industrial machinery and transport equipment, outweighed the fall in sales of semi-manufactured goods and energy products, hit by the price correction of oil products (the good figures from the previous year due to the refinery in A Coruña and the regasification plant in Mugardos were not repeated). In January-August 2024, the 2.9% year-on-year increase in Galician exports contrasts with the decline recorded in Spain (–0.5%).
Table of indicators
|
2008-2013 average |
2014-2019 average |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Latest figure |
|
Activity and prices |
Real GDP* |
–1.8 |
2.6 |
–9.1 |
5.6 |
4.2 |
2.1 |
2023 |
|
–1.7 |
2.8 |
–10.9 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
2.7 |
||||
Retail trade |
–3.5 |
2.1 |
–0.8 |
3.0 |
–1.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
August-24 |
|
–5.2 |
2.3 |
–5.2 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
|||
Industrial production index |
–5.3 |
1.8 |
–8.5 |
8.3 |
–3.5 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
August-24 |
|
–5.3 |
1.8 |
–9.2 |
7.1 |
2.5 |
–1.4 |
0.4 |
|||
Service activity index |
–2.9 |
6.2 |
–13.6 |
26.0 |
24.2 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
August-24 |
|
–4.6 |
5.1 |
–15.6 |
22.0 |
18.3 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
|||
Consumer price index |
1.7 |
0.7 |
–0.3 |
3.5 |
9.0 |
3.6 |
1.3 |
September-24 |
|
1.7 |
0.7 |
–0.3 |
3.1 |
8.4 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
|||
Labour market |
Registered workers affiliated to Social Security |
–3.2 |
2.1 |
–1.7 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
September-24 |
–3.1 |
3.2 |
–2.1 |
2.5 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
|||
Registered workers affiliated to Social Security not affected by furlough |
–3.2 |
2.1 |
–7.7 |
6.0 |
5.4 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
September-24 |
|
–3.1 |
3.2 |
–9.2 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
3.4 |
2.5 |
|||
Unemployment rate |
16.0 |
16.5 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
11.0 |
9.7 |
9.5 |
Q2 2024 |
|
20.2 |
18.8 |
15.5 |
14.9 |
13.0 |
12.2 |
11.3 |
|||
Unemployment rate for under 25s |
36.0 |
38.4 |
33.2 |
32.3 |
32.7 |
24.7 |
27.2 |
Q2 2024 |
|
42.5 |
42.5 |
38.3 |
44.5 |
24.4 |
28.8 |
26.6 |
|||
Public sector |
Public deficit |
–2.1 |
–0.4 |
–0.1 |
–0.1 |
–0.6 |
–0.1 |
–1.2 |
Q2 2024 |
–2.7 |
–0.9 |
–0.2 |
0.0 |
–1.1 |
–0.9 |
–1.0 |
|||
Autonomous Communities public debt |
11.3 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
18.2 |
16.8 |
15.7 |
16.3 |
Q2 2024 |
|
12.3 |
23.9 |
26.9 |
25.3 |
23.1 |
21.7 |
21.9 |
|||
Real estate market |
Housing prices |
–6.4 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
4.6 |
6.6 |
3.6 |
6.7 |
Q2 2024 |
–8.1 |
5.3 |
2.1 |
3.7 |
7.4 |
4.0 |
7.8 |
|||
Housing sales |
–13.9 |
7.4 |
–11.1 |
30.2 |
10.3 |
–11.6 |
11.0 |
July-24 |
|
–10.8 |
9.7 |
–16.9 |
34.8 |
14.8 |
–10.2 |
–1.3 |
|||
Foreign sector and tourism |
Exports of goods |
3.6 |
4.6 |
–5.9 |
20.6 |
18.3 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
August-24 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
–9.4 |
20.1 |
22.9 |
–1.4 |
–0.5 |
|||
Tourist overnight stays |
–2.6 |
5.1 |
–56.1 |
75.2 |
35.0 |
5.6 |
2.1 |
August-24 |
|
0.7 |
3.0 |
–69.2 |
78.3 |
73.3 |
7.1 |
5.0 |
Note: *The 2023 GDP figure for Autonomous Communities is an estimate made by CaixaBank Research.
Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Bank of Spain, the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security (MITRAMISS), the Ministry of Finance and DataComex.
Below we show a series of charts comparing the main indicators for the various regions.