• In terms of GDP, Asturias represents 1.9% of the country’s total (25.822 billion euros), making it the fifth-smallest region.
• With just over 1 million inhabitants, it accounts for 2.1% of Spain’s total population. It is the fourth least populated and the oldest region, as 28.0% of its population is over 65 years old (national average of 20.4%).
• Asturias’ GDP per capita (25,675 euros) is almost 9.0% below the Spanish average. It has gained ground in recent years, as its poor economic performance has been offset by the population decline.
• Its productive sector is notable for the relative importance of construction (6.1% vs. the national average of 5.4%), manufacturing industry (14.8% vs. 12.5%) and, above all, its extractive industry (7.8% vs. 4.9%). However, of lesser value are trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (25.6% vs. 28.4%), industry-related services (25.5% vs. 28.5%) and agriculture (1.2% vs. 2.6%).
• Goods exports as a percentage of regional GDP are slightly below the Spanish average (23.9% vs. 28.9%), although a sharp rise has been recorded in recent years. In 2023, Asturias’s exports were worth 6.192 billion euros, which represents 1.6% of all Spanish exports. The region’s main export sectors are iron, steel and other non-ferrous metals (21.9% and 20.9% of the total, respectively).

Asturias is one of the least dynamic regions in the country, partly due to a more modest upswing after the pandemic, given the lesser importance of tourism in its productive sector. We forecast 1.7% GDP growth in 2023, compared to 2.5% for the Spanish economy. The strong performance of services and construction contrasts with the weakening of its industry, particularly affected by rising energy prices and the protracted deterioration of the agriculture and livestock sector.

At CaixaBank Research, we expect GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2024, slightly below the average (1.9%). Although we expect the curbing of inflation and the relaxation of the monetary policy to boost household spending, the evolution of the economy will depend on the ability of the agricultural sector and industry to recover, affected by their heavy dependence on energy-intensive sectors. The upturn in private investment will depend on the pace of implementation of European funds.

Asturias’s labour market is performing worse than average, with an increase in the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security of 1.3% in 2023 (vs. 2.7%) and 2.1% year-on-year in February this year (vs. 2.7%), so the total number is 4.6% higher than it was in February 2019 (9.6% in Spain): over the last year, job creation has been concentrated in administrative activities, hotels and restaurants, and healthcare, whereas there have been job losses in the agricultural sector. In turn, the unemployment rate in Q4 2023 was 11.8%, the same as in the country as a whole and well below pre-COVID levels (13.1% in Q4 2019).

Consumption is performing poorly in the region. After falling sharply in the previous year, affected by inflationary pressures, retail and consumer goods (in volume) recovered in 2023, though only partially: they grew at below-average rates (6.0% vs. 7.5%) and they remain far below 2019 levels (–3.0% vs. +3.0%).

Asturias’s industry is being badly hit by the weakness of its energy and intermediate goods sectors, particularly the chemical and metallurgical industries. After the slight decline in 2022, the IPI fell further last year, dropping by 4.2% (vs. –0.8% for the country as a whole); so it remains far below 2019 pre-pandemic levels: 4.9% below (vs. –1.2%).

Exports of goods from Asturias were among the few to perform well in 2023, growing by 1.8% (–1.4% for the country as a whole), supported by buoyant sales of capital goods (transport and electrical equipment) and energy products (coal), compared to the contraction of semi-manufactured goods (iron, steel and chemical products). As a result, Asturias’s exports are 30.3% higher than in 2019 (+31.9% in Spain).